Updated at noon Sunday:
Many thoughts and bits of information in my reaction to the Cardinals’ signing of former NY Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million …
Ruben Tejada – Photo: MLB.com
This will also serve as a 2016 season preview for Tejada:
1. Cards GM John Mozeliak did the smart and obvious thing by waiting for Tejada to clear waivers rather than put in a claim and take on Tejada’s fully guaranteed $3 million salary for 2016. The Cardinals could afford to pay Tejada $3 million but that’s irrelevant. The Cards added depth by bringing in a marginal but useful major-league player at a 50 percent discount.
2. With Tejada’s addition, shortstop prospect Aledmys Diaz is heading to Class AAA Memphis for more developmental time, an expected move that became official Sunday morning. This is will be best for Diaz, who has only 58 plate appearances above the Class AA level and would likely benefit from extra experience before getting his shot with the big club. By signing Tejada, the Cardinals avoided the temptation of rushing Diaz into a starting job before he’s ready. By making this call, the Cards had Diaz’s long-term interests in mind instead of fast-forwarding him to St. Louis out of necessity.
3. Assuming that Tejada will be the primary shortstop during Jhonny Peralta’s recovery and rehab from thumb surgery, the Cardinals can use Jedd Gyorko in their preferred role: a RH bat that can step in and start on days off for Kolten Wong at second base and Matt Carpenter at third base — and also take some shifts at shortstop. This is important because manager Mike Matheny can’t allow fatigue to drain in his infield regulars. That was a big problem last season.
4. So why not just have Diaz start the season with the Cardinals and send Greg Garcia to Memphis? First of all, it would mean two RH bats (Gyorko, Diaz) in reserve infield roles; Garcia’s LH bat gives Matheny flexibility in seeking matchups. Second: though it’s a mini-sample size, Garcia has shown a knack for pinch hitting — batting .333 with a .944 OPS, two doubles and a homer in 36 career plate appearances as a PH. Finally, and most importantly, Diaz needs plenty of at-bats and won’t get them as a backup in the big leagues. At this stage of his development, it’s best that he plays every day.
5. Tejada’s versatility is a plus. With the Mets he started 397 games at shortstop, 110 at second base, and 18 at third base. So Matheny will have plenty of day-off options and lineup variations to choose from. But about Tejada’s leg? He was knocked out of the postseason by Chase Utley’s over-the-line wipeout slide during the Dodgers-Mets NLDS last fall. When Tejada checked into Mets camp last month, he said the fractured leg was healed about five, six weeks into the offseason. There haven’t been any complications.
6. After cutting the deal with Tejada, Matheny and Mozeliak cited defense as a reason. This sets up an intriguing test case. I mentioned this in a piece written a few days ago, but Tejada is below-average shortstop according to the advanced metrics. All of the established defensive systems — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Fielding Bible, Defensive Wins Above Replacement, Fielding Runs Above Average — gave negative ratings to Tejada in 2015. For example, Tejada was a minus 15 in Defensive Runs Saved last year, which ranked 35th among shortstops. The plus-minus scale used by Fielding Bible had Tejada at minus 19 last season — and that includes a minus 13 on ground balls, and minus 13 on gounders hit to his right. In fairness to Tejada, 2015 could have been an outlier; he scored slightly above average defensively in 2014. But he also came in at below-average in 2013 — but those metrics weren’t as harsh as his grade for 2015.
The Cardinals have a more positive view of Tejada’s defensive capability. Mozeliak referred to Tejada as “above average or average.” Speaking to reporters that cover the team in Jupiter, Matheny said: “Some people aren’t as high on the metrics. I like what I’ve seen. And I also know that he’s out to get better, too. We need a guy to catch the ball and make plays. This is a great place for him to work and get better, and we’ll see how that all plays out over time.”
This could be a case of Tejada passing the so-called “eyeball test” that throws out the advanced metrics. Either way, Tejada figures to play a lot and eventually we’ll get a better idea of what’s closer to accuracy: the evaluation based on metrics or the evaluation made by baseball men.
7. Matheny is right: Tejada should be highly motivated to have a really good showing in 2015 because he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the season. The Mets signed Tejada out of Panama at age 16, and liked him enough to let Jose Reyes walk as a free agent after 2011. Tejada, age 22, turned in a solid performance in 2012. In 501 plate appearances he batting .289 with a .333 onbase percentage and .351 slugging percentage. (A .685 OPS.) And he played decent defense that year, ranking 17th among MLB shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved. But Tejada never really built on his initial promise; in 1,053 plate appearances since the start of 2013 he’s batted .238 with a .323 OBP and 314 SLG for a .637 OPS. Defensively, Tejada has been a minus 18 at shortstop (not good) over the past three seasons. Defense was a factor in Tejada’s modest overall value (just one win above the replacement level) in 2015.
8. Tejada is still only 26 as he joins the Cardinals. The change to a new team and environment may help him. When speaking with reporters in the Cards’ clubhouse Saturday, Tejada said (via interpreter) he was looking forward to the “tranquility” in St. Louis. Tejada was blasted with plenty of criticism in New York for a number of reasons including poor conditioning. The Mets demoted Tejada to the minors in 2013, not long after exasperated manager Terry Collins told Tejada to get in better shape. After the ’13 season, the Mets ordered Tejada to participate in an offseason conditioning program at the University of Michigan. He complied. But according to multiple news reports at the time, the Mets were still disappointed with Tejada’s conditioning when he reported to camp in 2014.
9. In 2013, Mets GM Sandy Alderson complained about Tejada’s work ethic in an interview with New York sports-radio station WFAN, saying: “One of the problems with Ruben Tejada is it’s like pulling teeth. It’s extra batting practice, extra this, extra that, it doesn’t happen, necessarily, unless someone else is insisting on it. We need to see a commitment to improvement. He’s going to have to earn it.”
10. In 2015 spring training, Jose Reyes (then with Toronto) expressed similar frustration with Tejada, saying that he had tried to mentor the young Tejada during their time as Mets teammates. But Reyes said Tejada ignored his advice.
“Something’s wrong,” Reyes told New York Newsday. “Every time I talk to him I try to give him some advice. What can I do? I try to push him to do stuff. I don’t know if he gets it or not. He had the opportunity to be the everyday shortstop for a long time there in New York. You have to work, man. When you’re younger, you think you have everything there for you. But if you do something wrong, it’s going to go away. Quick.
“See what happened now? It’s 2015 and he doesn’t have a position to play. When they talk about who is going to play every day, they don’t talk about Tejada. They talk about (Wilmer) Flores. A couple of spring trainings ago (Tejada) came to spring training overweight. I mean, stuff like that. You play shortstop, you have to be in shape. You have to work in the offseason. That little stuff can hurt you at this level because if you get overweight at shortstop, you’re going to get slow.”
11. During his MLB career, Tejada has been better against LH pitching than RH pitching. He has a .281 average and .718 OPS vs. the lefties and a .246 average and .629 OPS against righthanders. But overall, Tejada has been slightly below the league average for shortstops offensively since arriving in the majors in 2010. Since 2010, MLB shortstops have batted .255 with a .312 OBP and .375 SLG for a .687 OPS. Tejada’s numbers over the same time: .255 average, .330 OBP, .323 SLG, .653 OPS.
12. Tejada has little power, and his .330 career onbase percentage is decent. But as Analyst Dave Cameron noted at FanGraphs, Tejada went with a more free-swinging approach in 2015. That resulted in a drop in Tejada’s contact rate, to 80 percent. That contact rate had been 89 percent in 2013, and 83 percent in 2014. Tejada still posted a fine .338 OBP, but some of that had to do with his .315 average on balls in play.
His first few years in the league,” wrote Cameron, “Tejada swung at roughly a league average percentage of the pitches he saw, and made contact at a well-above-average rate, allowing him to be relatively productive even without any power. In 2015, though, his swing rate climbed over 50%, making him a pretty aggressive hitter, and his contact rate simultaneously sunk down to league average levels. He did manage to marginally increase his power production — his .089 ISO, while one of the lower totals in the league, was a career high — but the increase in strikeout rate offset the small increase in extra-base hits, leaving Tejada as something a little less productive than he was as a contact specialist.
13. The ZiPS forecast has Tejada with a .249 average, .324 OBP and .324 SLG for a .648 OPS. And his projected 85 OPS+ would be 15 percent below the league average for offense. ZiPS also has Tejada as a minus 7 fielder in 2016; that would be a continuation of his defensive struggles of 2015. Tejada’s overall value according to ZiPS would be less than a win above replacement. But the forecast came in before Tejada moved from the Mets to the Cardinals, and there’s no way of knowing if the switch will get him going.
14. Best-case scenario: Tejada will be fired up by his fresh opportunity with a franchise that has strong leadership, high standards and an extensive tradition of success. He will be serious about his work. He will be an enthusiastic student during instructional sessions with the savvy coach Jose Oquendo and improve his defense. He’ll be more selective at the plate, and give the Cardinals an onbase percentage in the .340 range. As is, Tejada had an OPS+ of 95 last season, which is slightly below league average. If he can do that again, I don’t believe the Cardinals will be terribly disappointed. Tejada will realize he has a terrific opportunity to get his career back on track, and to enhance his reputation — just in time to enter the free-agent market after the season. If these things happen, the Cardinals will have a solid shortstop until Peralta returns. And that would be worth every penny of their $1.5 million investment.
15. Worst-case scenario: Tejada is a defensive liability, doesn’t show much fire, isn’t hungry, doesn’t repair the New York damage to his reputation, and free-swings himself into an awful offensive season. Even so, having him around could give Diaz the some valuable time for growth. And the Cardinals will have a chance to see if Diaz’s late-season offensive surge in 2015 was a fluke or a true indicator of his talent coming together. If Diaz proves that his big late-season 2015 numbers were for real, he could be primed for quick promotion. At minimum Tejada would be a stopgap until Diaz emerges, or until Peralta returns. And if Tejada is bumped from the primary gig at shortstop, he can still serve the Cardinals as three-position utility man. And if this goes really bad, and the Cardinals want to clear Tejada out, it’s no big deal to just eat what’s left of Tejada’s $1.5 million salary.
Bottom line: the Cardinals were left with a void when Peralta tore the ligament in his left thumb on a routine fielding play. Tejada won’t come close to supplying Peralta’s usual ration of power and production, and there are mixed opinions on the quality of Tejada’s defense. (Metrics: negative. Cardinals: positive.) The Cardinals took a low-cost, low-risk flyer on Tejada for multiple reasons: (1) the imminent conclusion that Diaz isn’t ready for a prime-time role on the bigs and needs more time; (2) reluctance to test Gyorko’s questionable glove with extensive appearances at shortstop; (3) coveting Gyorko in an all-purpose infield role.
Tejada has played 3,595 innings as a major-league shortstop. That’s a lot more experience than Gyorko’s 221 innings or Garcia 65 innings. Tejada was available for a cheap price, the Cardinals didn’t have to trade an asset to get him, and he’s still young enough to jump-start his career. Tejada had other offers but really wanted to be a Cardinal. That’s a good beginning to his stay here. At $1.5 million the Cardinals paid relatively little to take a long look at Tejeda’s viability and potential upside.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read More: Miklasz – The Cardinals Did the Right Thing In Sending Diaz to Memphis
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