After an emphatically strong and eye-opening finish to his 2015 season, Aledmys Diaz arrived in Jupiter and became the top new toy in spring training, especially after the Cardinals lost starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta to injury. The idea of Diaz taking ownership of the big club’s shortstop position by shooting line drives and coming up with magical defensive plays across Florida was exciting. Heck, the Cuban expatriate even had an instinct for the dramatic, getting four hits in his first start after Peralta suffered a torn ligament in his left thumb to go on the DL indefinitely.
Alas, the camp phenom cooled. If you subtract that four-hit game, Diaz went 5 for 30 in his other appearances, and over the weekend the Cardinals officially reduced the flame on the Diaz hype. Saturday GM John Mozeliak signed free-agent shortstop Ruben Tejada, late of the Mets, to a one-year dear for a relatively cheap $1.5 million. Tejada was essentially hired to become the regular shortstop until Peralta returns, perhaps by the All-Star break. And Sunday morning, Diaz was part of a nine-player roster trimming, getting sent to Class AAA Memphis to burnish his game through needed experience.
This was the right move by the Cardinals.
Tejeda’s overall game doesn’t quicken anyone’s pulse rate. The Cardinals are wishing and hoping that Tejada outperforms his negative defensive metrics, and can maintain a solid onbase percentage to do his share offensively. And maybe both things can happen, at least for two or three months. At worst, the Cards have layered in some roster depth by picking up a utility infielder that can be deployed at shortstop, second base, and third base. And if you place Tejada’s offensive numbers in the traditional utility-man context — in other words, low expectations — then it fits.
But this double move was just as much about doing what’s right for Diaz, and giving him more preparation time at the Triple A level. It’s difficult to accurately assess Diaz, the prospect. The Cardinals signed Diaz for $8 million guaranteed after he’d played five seasons in Cuba and a smattering of games in Mexico. His 2014 season was pretty much a “Who the hell knows” kind of experience, with Diaz unable to stay in the lineup because of a shoulder injury. Whatever progress Diaz had made in his tradition to professional baseball (in the U.S.) was seemingly halted through the first half of 2015.
On July 8 of last year, the Cardinals needed to clear a spot on the 40-man roster to activate first baseman Dan Johnson whom they used in 12 major-league games. The Cardinals removed Diaz from the 40-man for two reasons: (1) they gambled that the other 29 MLB teams would pass on claiming him because of the money owed to him; (2) he was having an awful season. At the time the Cardinals removed him from the 40, Diaz was batting a weak .235 with a substandard onbase percentage (.292) and slugging percentage (.344.) through 268 plate appearances with Class AA Springfield.
Diaz was certainly trending the wrong way, and looking like a waste of $8 million. But when he cleared waivers and was reinstalled at Springfield, something clicked.
— In the next 35 games with Springfield, Diaz batted .320 / .383 / .570 with seven homers, 11 doubles and 25 runs-batted in over 141 plate appearances.
— Promoted to Triple A Memphis, Diaz continued his barrage, batting .380 / .448 / .620 with three homers and three doubles in 14 games and 58 plate appearances.
— Dispatched to the prestigious Arizona Fall League after the minor-league season Diaz slammed through the desert with a .616 slugging percentage and .987 OPS in 20 games.
The Diaz stock went up … actually it soared … and this spring he became more of a camp curiosity. Not that all skeptics were convinced, but it’s fair to say that Diaz moved into the true “prospect” category. But even that comes with a bit of an asterisk. Diaz will be 26 in August, so he isn’t a kid. Right now he’s older than Randal Grichuk, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha and the same age as Stephen Piscotty, Kolten Wong and Trevor Rosenthal. He’s one year younger than Tejada, Greg Garcia and Kevin Siegrist.
As Diaz moves toward his 26th birthday, I think it’s reasonable to say his about him: if he’s a legitimate major-league talent — with starting-caliber skills — this is generally the time where everything comes together for a player. It’s the unofficial career-peak phase, and Diaz should be thriving.
But it’s also true that he’s had only 58 plate appearances above the Class AA level.
So this is not a finished product, per se.
Rather than risk a setback by flailing (or sitting) in the big leagues right now, this is a terrific opportunity for Diaz to go to Memphis and build on his late-summer success. And show that his offensive spree over the final two-plus months in 2015 was something real instead of a random fluke.
Diaz can become an important part of the Cardinals’ team — in 2016, and beyond — if he resumes ripping pitchers. If Diaz can keep making good plays and cranking out line drives, he’ll make it impossible for the Cards to ignore him. He’ll be on track for St. Louis — and it would be a fast track if Tejada is out there at shortstop butchering ground balls.
The enthusiasm for Diaz is justified. He’s given himself a chance to work his way into prominence. But the Cardinals didn’t need to push it with Diaz right now, so let’s all calm down a bit and let the dude settle in and progress without the hype machine twisted to full blast. Let Diaz play ball, every day, and master the Triple A level before arriving in the big leagues to stay. And if Diaz stumbles at Memphis, then maybe we can look back on last summer through a different lens. Maybe he was just overdue to get hot for a while; maybe it was a random streak.
The point: the proving grounds at Memphis will give everyone — including Diaz — meaningful clarity as we try to determine what the Cardinals really have in him.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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