As the Cardinals continue their warm relationship with the Florida sun, here’s my latest player preview for 2016…
Today: RH starting pitcher Mike Leake, who signed a five-year, $80 million free-agent deal with St. Louis on Dec. 22. Leake spent nearly six full seasons as a member in good standing in Cincinnati’s rotation, making 163 starts since the beginning of the 2010 season until a pre-deadline trade sent him to San Francisco last July.
Overview: Major League Baseball is in a wood-burning stage, with young power-armed pitchers striking out hitters in unprecedented numbers. Last season MLB pitchers averaged 7.76 strikeouts per nine innings, had a swing-and-miss rate of 23 percent, and allowed hitters to put the ball in play on only 39.5 percent of their swings. In all three categories, those pitcher-dominant stats were the highest in the majors since the mound was lowered before 1969 in MLB’s attempt to stimulate offense. With so many pitchers throwing 95+ mph, missing bats and conquering hitters with raw force it’s easy to overlook and underrate guys like Leake. He’s averaged barely over six strikeouts per nine innings in his career, throws his hardest pitch (the sinker) at around 91 mph, and gets a lot of hitters to slap grounders to his infielders. Leake commands a wide variety of pitches, supplies plenty of innings, and gives his team a pretty good chance of winning. There is nothing spectacular or even special about any of this. In the modern game, you won’t find unabashed love for savvy pitch makers. The advanced metrics don’t like ’em. Those faithful to the principles of sabermetrics are inclined to look down on his kind. But there’s a lot to like about him, even as he stays under the speed limit according to baseball’s radar-gun readings. My favorite stat with Leake: last season he threw 2,754 pitches — and only four were four-seam fastballs according to Brooks Baseball.
The Leake pitching profile: sinker, changeup, slider, cutter, curve. Four of the five pitches are rated as “plus” pitches, with only the changeup considered below-average. In 2015 Leake got a ground-ball rate above 50 percent on his sinker, slider and change and ranked 17th among MLB starters in overall GB rate. Since 2010 he’s one of only 35 major-league starters to amass at least 1,000 innings pitched — and only 22 starters have more IP over the previous six seasons. Leake has averaged 181 innings pitched per season and has gone 190+ innings three times. And though he’s below average in strikeout rate, Leake is stingy in handing out passes, averaging only 2.2 walks per nine innings.
Home/Road splits: Until signing with the Cardinals, Leake made about half of his major-league starts at The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, a hostile setting for pitchers. And he should enjoy working at Busch Stadium, a venue that generally favors pitchers.
Let’s look at the levels of offense at the Great American Ball Park and Busch Stadium since Leake arrived in the majors in 2010 — and compare both environments to the overall MLB average since 2010:
Slugging Percentage
Busch Stadium, .382
MLB average, .399
Cincinnati, .409
Onbase+slugging or OPS
Busch Stadium, .703
MLB average, .718
Cincinnati, .728
Isolated Power
Busch Stadium, .126
MLB average, .145
Cincinnati, .158
Home Run Ratio
Busch Stadium, a homer every 45 at-bats.
MLB average, a homer every 35.6 at-bats.
Cincinnati, a homer every 29.4 at-bats.
The disparity can be seen in Leake’s personal home/road splits during his Reds’ career. He had a 4.31 ERA at home, and a 3.43 ERA on the road. He was roughed up for a .449 slugging percentage home but only .402 on the road. There was a 67-point difference in the OPS that Leake allowed at home (.774) and the road (.707.) Lefthanded batters pounded Leake for an .833 OPS at Cincinnati — but their OPS against Leake away from was .709. That’s a huge difference; 124 points to be exact.
Leake as an all-around athlete: In 411 big-league plate appearances Leake has batted .212 with a .235 onbase percentage and .310 slugging percentage for a .545 OPS. That may not look like much until you check the numbers to gauge what MLB pitchers have done as hitters since 2010 … a .133 average, .165 OBP, .169 SLG and .334 OPS. So Leake’s OPS is a whopping 211 points better than the average hitting performance by pitchers since 2010. Leake has six homers and has delivered an extra-base hit every 15.8 at-bats compared to the overall MLB average of an extra-base hit every 38 at-bats by pitchers. Leake is a very good base runner. And he’s one of the finest fielding pitchers around with 27 Defensive Runs Saved during his career. He’s ranked among the top seven fielders at his position in three separate seasons.
The 2016 projection: About what you’d expect. The ZiPS forecast has Leake throwing 176.2 innings for a 3.77 ERA and 3.87 fielding independent ERA. ZiPS expects a slight decrease in Leake’s strikeout rate, to 5.8 per nine innings, but his low walk rate will stay in place. If you want to use Wins Above Replacement as a snapshot reference, ZiPS projects 2.2 WAR for Leake. That would make his value about a win less than Lance Lynn’s 3.1 WAR in 2015, and I mention that only because Leake is moving into the spot vacated by Lynn after he underwent Tommy John elbow surgery. But an enhanced strikeout rate tends to drive up a pitcher’s WAR value, and Lynn has a more powerful strikeout punch than Leake. Another way to look at it: the Reds had a team winning percentage of .526 during Leake’s time there; his personal winning percentage was .574.
General outlook: after losing Lynn and coming up short on their free-agent run at David Price, the Cardinals turned to Leake for stability, durability and bulk innings. He’s been on the DL once in his career, and that was with a strained hamstring. And except for a brief minor-league rehab assignment that doesn’t really count, Leake has never been in the minors — because of performance — since the Reds drafted him in June 2011. I was in favor of the signing weeks before the Cardinals and Leake agreed to terms, so needless to say I liked the move. I believe Leake will exceed expectations for four reasons (1) he’ll benefit from a winning environment and will be surrounded by fellow pitchers that set the MLB standard last season; (2) he’s traded in Great American Ball Park for Busch Stadium; (3) his catcher will be Yadier Molina, the cerebral strategist that has the lowest catcher ERA since becoming the Cards’ full-time starter in 2005; (4) Leake’s velocity increased in 2015 and that’s a positive sign. Leake is a solid, heady, old-fashioned pitcher. (Think: a healthy Kyle Lohse, circa 2008, 2011, and 2012.) Pitchers with dull strikeout totals can be assets. Why? Because they know how to pitch.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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