With opening day a little more than a month away, Here’s the latest in my series of individual-player previews for the 2016 Cardinals. In case you missed any of the previous previews and would like to catch up, here’s the entire file.
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In 153 at bats in 2015, Pham had a .268 average and a .347 OBP.
Today: outfielder Tommy Pham, who will celebrate his 28th birthday on March 8.
The long journey to the majors: Pham was a feel-good story in 2015, finally rewarded with an extended opportunity with the big club in St. Louis after years of being derailed by multiple injuries that delayed his progress. Pham was drafted into the organization in 2006, and spent nine-plus seasons in the minors. The Cardinals never gave up on Pham, and their faith paid off last summer when Pham came through in a big way — hitting with considerable prowess down the stretch to help rescue an offense left shorthanded by injuries to outfielders Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Jon Jay.
The 2015 season: after tearing a quad while trying to make a tough catch down the left-field line in an early spring training game, Pham didn’t make his debut at Class AAA Memphis until June 6. Thinned by injuries, the Cardinals brought Pham to St. Louis in early July, and he batted only .182 in 49 plate appearances before being sent down on July 20. But with the Cardinals needing emergency outfield help, Pham got recalled on Aug. 17.
He became one of their most imposing weapons over the final two-plus months of the season, batting .303 with a .379 onbase percentage and a .532 slugging percentage over his final 124 plate appearances. He homered four times, slashed five triples and three doubles, drove in 15 runs and scored 23 times. Among Cardinals’ hitters that had a minimum 100 plate appearances from Aug. 17 until the end of the schedule, Pham ranked fourth with an .824 OPS. Overall for 2015 Pham’s adjusted OPS of 125 ranked fourth among the Cardinals, behind Matt Carpenter, Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. (Minimum 170 plate appearances.) Pham homered and drove in two runs in five at-bats vs. the Cubs in the 2015 NLDS. Pham’s two-run homer in the 8th inning of Game 1 was the knockout blow in the Cards’ 4-0 win over Jon Lester. Pham, who bats right, was effective against RHP (.833 OPS) and LHP (.733 OPS.)
Pham is an advanced-metrics enthusiast: yes, he really is. Pham has an appreciation for the deep-dive data, which may explain his healthy walk rate (11 percent) in the minors and majors. That awareness should help Pham maintain a good onbase percentage as he builds on his initial major-league success.
Quick bat … but some growing pains: According to the advanced tracking stats, Pham had impressive bat speed as a rookie; his exit velocity upon pitch contact was one of the best in the majors. Accordingly, Pham had no problems handling four-seam fastballs. According to the data at Brooks Baseball, Pham hit .383 with a .681 slugging percentage and a .298 Isolated Power number in 47 at-bats that ended with Pham rocking a four-seam fastball. But he also struggled against sinkers, which wasn’t a surprise considering his elevated ground-ball rate. And MLB pitchers found at least one weakness; Pham had a whiff-swing rate of nearly 48 percent on sliders. He batted .182 and truck out 14 times in 35 at-bats vs. sliders. Pham can expect pitchers to pound him with sliders this season — at least until he shows he can do damage against the pitch.
Making adjustments: Pham has always hit the ball hard — but he’s also hit a lot of ground balls, and that reduced his power potential. But Pham’s hitting profile began to evolve during his final couple of stints at Triple A Memphis. Last season, for example, he had an 0.67 ground-ball, fly-ball ratio at Memphis. That was a major improvement over his overall minor league GB/FB ratio of 1.32. The improvement surfaced in his two separate trials with the 2015 Cardinals. Pham had a 2.36 GB/FB ratio and 53 percent ground-ball rate in his first call-up; he lowered that to a 2.11 GB/FB ratio and 48 percent ground-ball rate after returning to the majors last Aug. 17. This is pretty simple to understand. Pham has power. But that power won’t surface unless he can launch the ball into the sky. Pham’s percentage of fly balls that went for home runs jumped significantly (majors and minors) in 2015.
Good defense: Pham can play all three outfield positions. In 2015 he gave the Cardinals 74.2 innings in left field, 242.2 innings in center field, and 11 innings in right. According to the Fielding Bible defensive metrics, Pham saved five runs with his defense in center field and was above average in left.
The 2016 projections: Pham’s hugely inflated batting average (.392) on balls in play last season undoubtedly was a factor in the ZiPS forecast for ’16. That’s because ZiPS has Pham with 334 plate appearances, a .253 average, .314 OBP and a .411 slugging percentage in 2016. (And with 8 homers.) The steamer system is slightly more optimistic, with a projected .733 OPS compared to the .725 OPS from ZiPS. Those numbers aren’t bad, but somehow we expect more after seeing Pham break out offensively late last season. Was that a fluke? Though I’m well aware of the folly of overreacting to small-sample size statistics, I don’t think Pham was a fluke in 2015. Pham’s improvement actually surfaced in 2014 at Memphis, and then again in 2015 at Memphis. In his final 586 plate appearances at the Triple A level (over two seasons) Pham batted .325 with a .397 OBP and .496 SLG. He was on a more positive track — with his batting stats taking off — in his run-up to the majors. That was a warning sign to the pitchers.
General outlook: As the team’s fourth outfielder in 2016, Pham should be be kept busy. If he stays healthy, he’ll play quite often and could take over as a starter in the event of an injury to Holliday, Grichuk or Piscotty. Brandon Moss also figures into the corner-outfield mix for 2015, but a lot of that will depend on the playing-time allocation at first base with Moss and Matt Adams. Pham is no kid; he graduated to the majors at a later age and doesn’t figure to have a lengthy peak. It’s imperative for him to make the most of it by avoiding those disruptive injuries. Pham has the gift of terrific bat speed — and with that comes power. Pham has seemingly adjusted his swing to get more batted balls airborne, and that’s a good sign. Pham is certainly among the more intriguing hitters in Cardinals’ camp. And he’s the kind of guy I root for. Pham’s so-called dues were paid a long time ago, and he’s overdue for more fortunate luck with injuries.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read all of Bernie’s 2016 Cardinals Player Previews here.
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