The player previews continue today with Stephen Piscotty, the second-year Cardinal that’s been installed as the right fielder to replace the departed Jason Heyward.
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Piscotty logged 256 plate appearances in 2015, with a .305 average and a .359 OBP.
Age and background: Piscotty will turn 25 on July 21. A hitting star at Stanford, Piscotty was chosen 36th overall in the 2012 draft. The Cardinals went for Piscotty with a compensation pick the team received for losing Albert Pujols to the Angels in free agency. After spending 3+ seasons moving through the Cardinals’ minor-league system Piscotty made his major-league debut last July 21.
The 2015 season: Piscotty provided instant offense for a needy lineup. Over Piscotty’s first 256 big-league plate appearances, it wasn’t surprising to see him hit for average (.304) or post a very good onbase percentage (.359.) But Piscotty hit for more power than anticipated, banging 26 extra-base hits (including 7 homers) and slugging .494. That slugging percentage was notable for this season: Piscotty had never slugged higher than .475 in a minor-league season.
Piscotty continued to launch baseballs during the Cardinals’ four-game loss to the Cubs in the NLDS; he went 6 for 16 (.375), homered three times and a drove in six runs. Piscotty, who bats right, had no problem hitting RH pitching (.841 OPS) and mashed LH pitching for an .887 OPS.
Looking at his data at Brooks Baseball, Piscotty was boss against every type of pitch last season except for the changeup. Piscotty’s adjusted OPS+ of 134 made his performance 34 percent above the league average. It was a smashing MLB debut for Piscotty, a smart hitter that has an excellent chance to be a lineup fixture in St. Louis for many seasons.
Note of caution: I’ll be accused of being a grouch — determined to hunt for negatives — by pointing to Piscotty’s highly inflated .372 batting average on balls in play as a Cardinal in 2015. I’ll just point out that over the past 20 major-league seasons the industry batting average for balls in play was .298. As is always the case with batted balls, unless you hit them over the fences, there’s a chance for a fielder to make a play. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes a hitter has good luck; other times he has bad luck. Piscotty is a skilled hitter with a mature and professional approach who also benefited from batted-ball randomness in 2015. Last season 311 MLB hitters had at least 250 plate appearances; only eight finished with a higher batted-ball average than Piscotty’s .372. There’s nothing wrong with being the beneficiary of some batted-ball luck — as long as we recognize that a .372 BIP average isn’t bankable on a yearly basis.
Defense: Piscotty was versatile and valuable in that he played 385 innings in left field, 90 innings in right field, 57 innings at first base, and five innings in center field. He moved around so much, his defensive metrics (at each position) don’t hold a lot of meaning. But for whatever it’s worth, in Defensive Runs Saved Piscotty was about average at 1B, below average in LF, and slightly above average in RF. His outfield arm was rated just below average. But again, Piscotty didn’t log enough innings at any of the positions to form a credible analysis-based assessment of his defense. I think he’ll be more than adequate in right field; his minor-league corner-outfield defense received positive reviews. As for base running … according to Baseball Prospectus Piscotty had a BRR rating of minus 2 … which basically means he wasn’t a very good runner. But I’ll withhold judgment on that area of his game until we can see him play a full season.
Where will Piscotty bat in the lineup this season? That’s a good question. Mike Matheny has said he will experiment with many different lineup looks during exhibition games. Last season Piscotty was used most often in the No. 2 hole (131 plate appearances) but was also slotted in five other spots. Piscotty figures to be a No. 2 or No. 3 hitter long-term. But you could see him batting 5th. And he’ll even get a look at the leadoff spot this spring. If Matheny is serious about utilizing Piscotty as a leadoff guy (to move Matt Carpenter to a middle-lineup spot) Piscotty would have to raise his 8% walk rate from last season.
The Projections: ZiPS and Steamer aren’t real sunny in their Piscotty forecasts — undoubtedly unswayed by his 2015 average of .372 average on balls in play. ZiPS has Piscotty’s balls in play average dropping to .310, and Steamer puts it at .304. If that happens, the result would be a downturn — and that’s what we see in these projections. ZiPS has Piscotty batting .272 with a .333 OBP and .425 SLG (for a .758 OPS). And ZiPS sees Piscotty as more of a doubles hitter (35 in a projected 577 plate appearances) than a home-run hitter (a forecast of 13 HR.) Steamer has less optimism: .267 average, .327 OBP and .406 slug for a .733 OPS. Plus 12 homers. ZiPS forecasts an OPS+ of 107 for Piscotty; that would be a 27-point drop from last season. If I had to bet on this, I’d wager on Piscotty exceeding the forecasts.
General Outlook: Before the 2015 season, as he prepared to start the year at Class AAA Memphis, Piscotty modified his swing in an attempt to get more drive and loft in his swing and made progress with a .475 slugging percentage at Memphis. The positive trend continued with the big club, but with Piscotty set for his first full major-league season, and playing nearly every day, we’ll have a better handle on his true power by the end of the season. We’ll see how Piscotty will build on his 256 rookie plate appearances. But this man can hit. Whether he’ll hit for sustained power remains to be seen. But as GM John Mozeliak told me two years ago: “Piscotty will be a line-drive hitter in the major leagues for a long time.”
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read all of Bernie’s 2016 Cardinals Player Previews here.
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