The Cardinals formally open their Grapefruit League schedule on Thursday with a game against the Miami Marlins at Roger Stadium in Jupiter. In time the spring-training games will turn monotonous, with the players and staff bored by the daily routine and anxiously looking forward to the first real baseball game on Opening Day. But the first exhibition game is fresh and new and exciting in its own way; it means that spring training has moved into another stage and we’re just a little bit closer to the Cards’ April 3 season-opener in Pittsburgh.
I’ll use the occasion to hit the reset button, and today I’ll offer up my five most pressing questions about the St. Louis offense … and the areas that warrant closer attention as the Cards make their way through the Grapefruit circuit before heading to PNC Park to jump right into the NL Central race with a three-game set (April 3-6) against the rival Pirates.
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In 323 at bats in 2015, Grichuk had a .276 average and a .329 OBP.
Here we go …
1. Can last year’s rookie class step up and handle more substantial roles?
I bet you didn’t know this: last season Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham combined for a higher onbase percentage and a more robust slugging percentage than heralded Cubs’ rookies Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler. The cited Cubs had better counting stats for obvious reasons; there were four of them (to the Cardinals’ three) and we’re talking about many more at-bats. Of course the Cubs rookies would hit more homers and drive in more runs; they played more extensively than the rookies in St. Louis. But for whatever it’s worth…
Grichuk, Piscotty, Pham: .342 OBP … .515 SLG … .857 OPS.
Bryant, Soler, Russell, Schwarber: .339 OBP … .439 SLG … .778 OPS.
That sort of violates the the standard media-driven narrative, eh?
Of course, it’s up to Grichuk and Piscotty (and perhaps to a lesser extent Pham) to prove that they’re capable of sustaining their rookie-season success, and building on their rookie-season success. Piscotty will open the season as the regular in right field. Grichuk is the new fixture in center. Pham will be used at all three outfield spots. After losing Jason Heyward to the Cubs via free agency, Cards GM John Mozeliak declined to rain dollars on an available free-agent outfielder. Mozeliak preferred to give expanded opportunities to his talented, second-year outfielders.
In 779 plate appearances and 709 at-bats last season Grichuk, Piscotty and Pham combined for 29 homers, 104 RBIs, 106 runs, 45 doubles, 16 triples, and that .857 OPS. Given the hopeful but relatively moderate expectations, the production was excellent. But there’s a lot more responsibility being put on them now. They won’t be eased into the lineup. They’re part of the core. Much is expected. The pressure is on. And while we should always be careful and smart about avoiding overreaction to spring-training statistics, I think it’s fair to say the Cards and their fans want to see this outfield trio have a healthy, confident, power-driven exhibition season. You don’t want to see a struggle for confidence as they tote their to the regular season.
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Quad injuries limited Holliday to 73 games in 2015.
2. Matt Holliday is in the best shape of his life — OK, but what about the shape of his slugging percentage?
This story line quickly became a breathless-media favorite in camp Jupiter: Holliday is leaner … Holliday is in The Best Shape Of His Life … Holliday was actually hitting batting-practice pitches to the planet Jupiter … Holliday can’t be possibly age 36, because he’d defied the aging curve and he looks like a pup of age 26!!!
Look, I’m a Holliday fan and I’ll never understand the kooky Holliday Deniers who insist that chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. threw away a lot of money in signing Holliday to that seven-year, $117 million deal before the 2010 season.
This turned out to be one of the best free-agent signings in the majors over the past 10 years or so; Holliday has been worth every DeWitt dollar. But as much as I’d like to see Holliday have a strong bounce-back season in 2016, I have to base the optimism on something with a helluva lot more substance than batting practice.
Holliday, by the way, has always been in great shape; he’s a fitness-conditioning-diet freak. But if coming in lighter keeps Holliday more flexible and perhaps less vulnerable to straining a quad or a hamstring or a back muscle (etc.) — well, fantastic.
But let’s get to the heart of the matter: Holliday is 36. Last season he played a career-low 73 games because of two torn-quad injuries that limited him to only 277 plate appearances. And while he hit for average and drew plenty of walks to post an impressive onbase percentage (as usual), Holliday’s slugging percentage dropped to .410.
Beginning in 2009, when the Cardinals acquired Holliday from Oakland in late July, here’s the yearly look at Holliday’s slugging percentage and the gradual drain of power:
2009: .604
2010: .532
2011: .525
2012: .497
2013: .490
2014: .441
2015: .410
The exhibition games will offer at least of glimpse of the state of Holliday’s power. He’s a vital presence in this lineup; a rebound season from Holliday would be a huge development for a challenged offense.
Clik here to view.
Molina had two surgeries over the offseason to repair a thumb ligament.
3. Will Yadier Molina be ready by Opening Day — and will the Cards be careful with him?
We discussed the Molina situation in our corner of the interwebs here on Tuesday so there’s no need to repeat all of that. But it comes down to this: it would be devastating to see Molina rush his way back and suffer a serious setback as he progresses in his rehab from a second surgery to repair the torn ligaments in his left thumb.
I can’t imagine the consequences of a third surgery on the thumb that happens to be located on Molina’s catching hand. And because of significant thumb injuries on both hands over the last two seasons and how that impacts the strength of Molina’s grip, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to hit for much power. But that’s OK, given what he means to the Cardinals defensively. And what he means to the clubhouse as a team leader.
There’s a lot at stake here.
The Cardinals have to do everything they can to be sensible in their handling of Molina — even if it means taking a strong stand to prevent him from coming back to soon.
Clik here to view.
Carpenter has a career OBP of .387 when batting leadoff.
4. Manager Mike Matheny’s auditions for the No. 1 spot on his lineup card
The young and talented second baseman Kolten Wong wants to bat leadoff. This would give manager Matheny a chance to move the Cards’ customary No. 1 hitter, Matt Carpenter, into a middle-lineup spot to ramp M-Carp’s power to maximum value. Carpenter pelted 28 homers and slugged .505 last season, and those numbers would look dandy in the No. 4 spot. But if Wong can’t get on base more frequently than what we’ve seen from him so far, it would be foolish to put him at the top of the lineup.
Wong has a .303 career onbase percentage … not good.
Wong has a .292 career OBP when he bats No. 1 in the lineup … not good.
Wong has a career .297 OBP when he leads off an inning … not good.
Wong has a very low career walk rate of 5.4 percent … not good.
Wong has chased pitches out of the strike zone 32.2 percent of the time during his career … not good.
The chasing was more chronic in 2015, 35 percent of Wong’s swings were on pitches out of the zone … not good.
Carpenter is an onbase machine, with a career .387 leadoff OBP. Ideally, you’d like to see him in more of a so-called damage spot in the lineup. But unless there is a viable alternative at the leadoff position, the appeal of moving Carpenter is diminished. Matheny will look at others in a leadoff capacity; we may see Piscotty used there in some of the practice games. But because of his speed, Wong would be the best fit at a top of a new-look lineup — but only if he can prove he’s developed a more savvy hitting approach and enhanced OBP capability during Grapefruit League play.
Clik here to view.
A quad injury limited adams to 186 plate appearances in 2015.
5. Who’s On First: Brandon Moss or Matt Adams?
Adams has a lot to prove since his offense and power production went into decline, dramatically so, after the 2014 All-Star break.
The big man, who dominated righthanded pitchers earlier in his career, wasn’t nearly as forceful against them late in 2014 and again in 2015 before he went down with a torn quad in late May. A predictable spring-training explanation surfaced: Adams is in The Best Shape of His Life … Adams has adjusted his swing … Adams has worked closely with John Mabry … Adams has figured it all out.
I’ve heard it all before. We’ll see.
As we wrote recently, Adams has to go back to pulling the ball aggressively — which was his successful method of attack as a younger slugger. If Adams can turn on fastballs and smoke them to his pull side (right field) his power numbers will rise.
Otherwise, he’s just a moderate-threat hitter, limited to facing RH pitching, who can come off the bench and make occasional starts.
As for Moss … I’m not sure why so many tend to quickly dismiss his chances of having a reasonably good season. He wasn’t terrible after coming over from Cleveland last July 31; Moss didn’t embarrass himself by finishing with a .753 OPS as a Cardinal. Moreover, Moss was one of their better hitters down the stretch, batting .298 with a .524 slugging percentage and .903 OPS over his final 31 games.
It isn’t very bright to make assumptions based on a slice of 31 games, but Moss wasn’t functioning at full capacity last season. As we know, Moss had offseason surgery following the 2014 season to repair a torn hip. During a difficult rehab period, Moss was unable to fully engage in weight training for his lower base. And having a strong foundation — from the hips down — is critically important to a hitter. Moss says his leg strength is restored, and if that’s the case, we should see him driving the ball with authority during Grapefruit League action. Ideally, Adams and Moss will thrive this spring to give Matheny more lineup options.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read More: Ten Questions Facing the Cardinals as Spring Training Opens
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