Here’s the latest in my series of previews of Cards’ players for 2016. Thanks for reading them.
Today: First baseman Matt Adams, entering his third full season with the Cardinals. Adams, 27, turns 28 late in the season.
A quad injury limited Adams to 186 plate appearances for the 2015 season.
The situation: After a bombastic start to his big-league career, Adams has experienced a significant power fade. And after a lost 2015 season Adams will be trying to prove himself anew by staying healthy, plugging in his power, and winning playing time at first base in his competition with Brandon Moss.
The Cardinals could, in theory, use right fielder Stephen Piscotty at first base this season but GM John Mozeliak prefers to see if Moss or Adams is the answer. Left fielder Matt Holliday took the initiative to start working at first base over the offseason, but at this point there’s no reason to believe he’ll be a serious factor at the position. (Key phrase: at this point.)
Something has to change.
Cardinals first basemen produced weak numbers collectively last season, ranking 29th in slugging pct. (.392), 28th in OPS (.702), 27th in Isolated Power (.154), 26th in homers (18), 24th in RBIs (80), and 24th in extra-base hits. And STL first basemen had the fifth-worst strikeout rate.
Adams can make a difference if he gets back on track. His power was a valuable element for the Cardinals in 2013 and the first half of the 2014 season. And his dramatic home run off Dodgers’ lefty Clayton Kershaw for the clinching win in the NLDS was among the team’s biggest blows of the ’14 season.
The 2015 season: A wipeout, basically. Adams tore his right quadriceps in late May and didn’t return until September but was a non-factor after making it back, excluded from the Cards’ NLDS roster. In 186 plate appearances Adams hit only 5 homers and batted .240 with a .280 onbase percentage and a .377 slugging percentage for a career-low .657 OPS. That OPS ranked 38th in the majors among first basemen that had at least 175 plate appearances.
Trending the wrong way against RH pitching: We don’t expect Adams, who of course swings left, to crank much offense vs. lefthanded pitching. In 230 big-league plate appearances vs. the LH, Adams is batting .197 with a .317 SLG and .547 OPS. More on point — and alarming is his decline vs. RH pitching. I cited this in a piece written here in January, so let’s go through the numbers again:
From start of 2013 until the 2014 All-Star break, vs. RHP: 513 plate appearances … a homer every 21.8 at-bats … .548 slugging percentage … .948 OPS.
From the 2014 All-Star break until the end of 2015, vs. RHP: 346 plate appearances … a homer every 35.5 at-bats … a .403 slugging percentage … .701 OPS
What are the issues? What are the factors that have worked against Adams? I think it comes down to three things: (1) he has to stay healthy and avoid breakdowns and better conditioning will help him with that; (2) he has struggled against power pitchers and their fastballs and unless he can turn that around the big guy is in trouble; (3) from a power standpoint he’s at his best and most dangerous when he pulls pitches, and maybe he should focus on tapping into that strength instead of trying to be something that he’s not — a slap hitter — when defensive shifts dare him to hit the ball to the opposite field. (I’ll elaborate on the fastball vulnerability and his pull power here in a minute.) Some would say Adams needs to cut down on strikeouts. And while that is always a good idea, his career strikeout rate of 22% isn’t abnormal for middle-lineup type of hitters. If anything I would argue that he takes too many pitches.
Adams vs. power pitching: According to Baseball Reference Adams has only 7 homers and a .370 slugging percentage in 259 career plate appearances against hard-throwing pitchers. There’s been a season by season regression; in 2013 Adams slugged .446 vs. power pitchers but that dropped to .407 in 2014 and .256 last season. Adams has been at his best vs. finesse pitchers, loading up for a career .492 slugging percentage against them.
Adams as a pull hitter: Adams has hit for an impressive average when he punches the ball the other way, to the left side, when opponents set a defensive shift trap against him. Adams has done a very nice job of stroking base hits, going 54 for 131 in his career (.412) when hitting to the opposite field. There’s only one problem with that: he has abundant power, and it virtually becomes null and void when he slaps the ball to the left side. Adams has one career homer (in those 131 at-bats) when he goes the opposite way. When Adams pulls the ball, he’s still a dangerous man: in 246 career at-bats that end with him pulling a pitch, Adams is batting .423 with 23 homers, an .813 slugging percentage and a sensational 1.232 OPS. He’s blasted a home run every 10.6 at-bats when he pulls. He’s homered every 30 at-bats when he hits the ball to center. And to repeat, he has one opposite-way HR in 131 at-bats. We all can agree that 2015 was a frustrating, brutal season for Big City. But here’s the deal: even during his season of adversity, Adams crushed it when he pulled the ball — with 5 homers, a .740 slugging percentage and a 1.100 OPS in 50 at-bats. It seems that Adams could be a real asset if he can just resume his pull-side power ways. But what do I know?
Defense: Adams has done a good job at first base, with surprisingly good range (for a big man) and smooth hands that put him at 13 Defensive Runs Saved over the past two seasons combined.
The 2016 Projection: ZiPS has Adams with 11 homers and a .433 slugging percentage in 357 plate appearances; his projected OPS+ of .102 would make him a slightly above-average major-league hitter. That isn’t an exciting forecast, but it would represent a low-key bounce back season after his pain and frustration in 2015.
General Outlook: I apologize for being redundant here … but unless Adams can do something with fastballs and get back to using his quick stroke to pull pitches and maximize his power, he’s heading to marginal-player, role-player status.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read all of Bernie’s 2016 Cardinals Player Previews here.
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