Here’s the latest in my series of player previews in preparation of the Cardinals’ 2016 season. Thanks to Chris Files for setting up an online library where you can find all of the previews and catch up on any you may have missed. You can access all of the ’16 previews by clicking here…
In 350 plate appearances in 2015, Grichuk had a .276 average with a .329 OBP.
Today: center fielder Randal Grichuk, who will be entering his second full season (and third season overall) with the Cardinals after coming to St. Louis in the pre-2014 trade that sent third baseman David Freese to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Grichuk, 24, turns 25 on Aug. 13.
The 2015 season: after a three-season stretch (2012-2014) in which he averaged 568 at-bats per year, Grichuk had a problems staying on the field. The injury problems that greatly limited Grichuk early in his minor-league developmental time with the Angels were a factor again — limiting him to 350 plate appearances with the Cardinals. Grichuk missed time in spring training with a strained lower back, missed a month early in the season after re-injuring the back, and missed several weeks late in the season with a strained right elbow.
Injuries weren’t the only reason for Grichuk’s relatively low at-bat total; at times Grichuk sat in the dugout as manager Mike Matheny gave playing time to the struggling Jon Jay in center.
When Grichuk’s health and Matheny’s lineup choices were aligned, Grichuk put on an impressive power show. His .548 slugging percentage was 10th in the majors among hitters that had a minimum 350 PA. His isolated power number (ISO) of 272 ranked 9th. Grichuk homered every 19 at-bats, which was the fourth-best rate by a Cardinal hitter over the past five seasons, trailing only Albert Pujols (2011), Lance Berkman (2011) and Carlos Beltran (2012.) With 17 homers, 23 doubles and 7 triples, more than half of Grichuk’s hits (47 of 89) went for extra bases in 2015. Grichuk, who bats right, clubbed RH pitching for a .562 slugging percentage and .907 OPS. His adjusted onbase-slugging (OPS+) of 137 was 37 percent above the league average.
Plenty of raw materials, but a work in progress: Grichuk’s plate discipline continued to be a challenge in 2015. He struck out in 31.5 percent of his plate appearances; that rate was the sixth worst in the majors among batters with 350 plate appearances. And among Cards’ regulars, only Mark Reynolds had a swing-and-miss rate (31.6%) as high as Grichuk’s in 2015. No Cardinal position put the ball in play less often (30%) when swinging the bat. And Grichuk chased pitches out of the strike zone at a rate of 30.5 percent. Grichuk had an interesting hitting profile in 2015; according to the data at Brooks Baseball he had robust slugging percentages against every type of pitch except for the curve ball. But his whiff-swing percentages were extremely high against every type of offering. I’m overstating this, but in many ways Grichuk is as strong as he is weak against virtually every variety of pitch. Lots of power … lots of strikeouts.
Defense: Can Grichuk handle the demands of playing center field? He seemingly has the athleticism to make it work. And his small-sample size of 282 innings in CF last season was encouraging; Grichuk had 5 defensive runs saved at the position. But we’ll need to see him out there a lot more often to get a more accurate and meaningful read on his ability to play center at an above-average level.
On the Cardinals’ commitment to make Grichuk a full-time player: writing at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron had this to say about the Cards’ decision to go with Grichuk in center and Stephen Piscotty in right field — rather than sign another free-agent outfielder — after losing Jason Heyward to free agency:
“Like the Nationals, the Cardinals took some big swings this winter, trying to spend big on David Price and Jason Heyward, but failing in both pursuits. The fallback plan of giving a lot of money to Mike Leake and then standing pat on offense is a bit curious, though; if they had the money for one of the best free agents on the market, it seems like they should have had the money for other players once prices started dropping. The Cardinals have gotten where they are by continually developing homegrown talent, and I see the rationale in wanting to give guys like Grichuk and Piscotty a shot to show what they can do, but this team still feels a bit thin on the hitting side of things to me, and if Brandon Moss doesn’t have a big bounce-back season, I think they might regret not reinforcing the line-up a bit more aggressively.”
The 2016 projections: For whatever it’s worth — and again, these projections are offered as a quick reference rather than gospel — ZiPS and Steamer offer a disappointing forecast for Grichuk in 2016. I think a lot of this is based on Grichuk’s inflated .365 batting average on balls in play last season; history tells us that the BIP number will come down in 2016. ZiPS has Grichuk clouting only 19 homers in 488 plate appearances, with his slugging percentage dropping to .462, his ISO sliding to .209 (which is still good), and posting an OPS OPS+ of 105, which is barely above the league average. Steamer has Grichuk hitting only 20 homers on 522 plate appearances. Grichuk’s inflated .365 average on balls in play elevated his onbase percentage to .345 last season — an OBP that exceeded expectations. But both forecasting models see Grichuk dipping slightly below .300 in onbase percentage in 2016, and the reason would be a deflation of his average on balls in play. (ZiPS with a BIP of .309; Steamer at .295.) On the positive side, both projections see a decrease in Grichuk’s strikeout rate this season (by six, seven percentage points.) So why do both systems foresee a decline in Grichuk’s HR ratio this season? Likely answer: a leveling of his HR/FLY rate. Only 8.3 percent of Grichuk’s fly balls went for homers in 2014; that figure spiked dramatically — to 19 percent — in 2015.
General outlook: There is little doubt about Grichuk’s power potential; it’s real. Last season Grichuk actually had a better home-run ratio than the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, the runaway winner of NL Rookie of the Year. But Grichuk’s early-career habit of wasting too many at-bats (via strikeout) could hold him back. What would his numbers look like with improved plate discipline, fewer holes in his swing, and an enhanced contact rate? Grichuk’s power is explosive; he ranked among the top 20 in the majors last season on exit velocity after making contact. But Grichuk won’t reach his maximum power level if he continues to give away so many plate appearances because of a low walk rate and elevated strikeout rate. On top of that, Grichuk must stay healthy and on the field to make substantial impact. I think Grichuk will exceed the projections for 2016. If he doesn’t, the team’s offense will stagnate. I don’t believe any Cardinals’ hitter will have as much influence than Grichuk — food or bad — on the lineup’s production in 2016.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read More: 2016 Cardinals Preview – Catcher Yadier Molina
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