After previewing all of the Cardinals’ relevant position players, it’s time to shift focus to the pitching staff, which carried the 2015 Cardinals to 100 wins in a season in which the offense ranked 24th in runs scored.
Wainwright has three seasons left on his contract with the Cardinals.
The Cardinals led the majors in overall ERA, starting-pitching ERA and quality starts. In terms of run prevention, the 2015 Cardinals had the best performance by a STL staff since 1969. Can they do it again? It’s a challenge for sure. But this is a deep and capable staff.
Let’s get going:
Today: No. 1 starter Adam Wainwright, age 34, and a Cardinal since 2005. Wainwright has three seasons remaining on his contract and is set to be paid $19.5 million guaranteed this season and again in 2017 and 2018.
Overview: We didn’t realize it at the time, but when Cards GM Walt Jocketty made a five-player deal with Atlanta on Dec. 13, 2003 it turned out to be one of the greatest trades in franchise history. Jocketty, knowing that he wouldn’t be able to re-sign the free-agent bound outfielder J.D. Drew, moved Drew and catcher Eli Marrero to the Braves for starting pitcher Jason Marquis, lefty reliever Ray King, and a tall pitching prospect named Wainwright.
It was a hugely successful transaction for the Cardinals, with Wainwright developing into one of the best pitchers in Cardinals’ history. As s rookie in 2006, Wainwright took over as the closer late in the regular season for the injured Jason Isringhausen and mowed through the postseason with barely a scratch — allowing no earned runs (with four saves) in nine relief appearances. His strikeout of Carlos Beltran with a wicked curve to clinch the 2006 NLCS is one of the most iconic moments in team history, and a little more than week later he whiffed Detroit’s Brandon Inge to end the ’06 World Series. Having mastered closing, Wainwright moved into the Cardinals’ rotation to become one of the most dominant starters of his time.
Accomplishments: The top highlights include finishing in the top three of the Cy Young award voting four times — 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014. (He was second in the balloting in 2010 and 2013) … named to the NL All-Star team three times … received league MVP votes in four different seasons … won the Gold Glove as the league’s best pitcher defensively in 2009 and 2013 … two 20-win seasons … his adjusted career ERA (+133) ranks 27th among starters in MLB history … his career strikeout/walk ratio (3.4) ranks 31st in MLB history.
Waino’s place in Cardinals history: Despite having one season entirely wiped out by elbow surgery (2011) and another ruined by a torn Achilles tendon (with only four starts in 2015), Wainwright is making his way up the charts in multiple categories. He ranks eighth in Cards’ history with 121 wins, only seven behind Harry Brecheen and 17 in back of Dizzy Dean … with 1,326 strikeouts Wainwright is second to Bob Gibson … Wainwright is 11th in career innings pitched … Waino’s standard ERA, 2.98, ranks fifth …. his fielding independent ERA (2.80) is the best among starters in team history, ahead of Dean (2.92) and Gibson (3.17) … Wainwright has the best strikeout/walk ratio among Cards starters, all-time (3.4) … his strikeout rate of 7.6 per nine innings is the best ever by a Cards’ starter … He’s fourth among pitchers in franchise history with 34.1 Wins Above Replacement, with only Gibson (82.3), Dean (37.1) and Jesse “Pop” Haines (35.8) ahead of him… Wainwright’s WHIP (1.16 walks and hits per inning) is the best among starters in club history… as for the postseason, Wainwright is second in Cards history in innings (89), fourth in games started (11), tied for fifth in wins (4), tied for fifth in saves (4) and is tied for fifth in starter ERA (3.03.)
The 2015 season: Wainwright went down for the season — at least as a starter — with a torn Achilles in the team’s April 25 game at Milwaukee. At the time the injury was considered a season-ender, but Wainwright insisted he could rehab his way back by the end of the season. His optimism seemed naive, but Wainwright was right: he returned in a relief role on Sept. 30 and made three appearances during the final week of the season. And he was effective against the Cubs in the NLDS, allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings spread across three games. Wainwright checked into Jupiter in full health last month, and is set to return to his role as the No. 1 starter and staff leader.
Before the injury: Wainwright was rolling, putting up consecutive top-three Cy Young finishes in 2013 and 2014. He led the majors in innings over the two seasons, was tied for fourth in ERA (2.67), and was tied with Max Scherzer for the MLB lead in wins (39) over the two years.
At age 34, and after missing most of 2015, will Wainwright be the same? It’s natural to ask that question, because no one stays in peak form forever. And if detectives are looking for signs of erosion, they can jump on a couple of things including a relatively minor drop in velocity for three consecutive seasons, and a slight decline in swing-miss rate that’s resulted in a higher contract rate.
As for the velocity, here’s the average on four-seam fastball in each of the past three seasons:
92.08 in 2013
91.2 in 2014
90.9 in 2015
And here’s the average velocity on the sinker:
91.6 in 2013
91.1 in 2014
90.8 in 2015
With a lot of pitchers, this would be cause for at least some alarm. But Wainwright is a different cat. He has six pitches in his arsenal, including a killer curveball. But it isn’t just the surface-level variety of pitches; he gives the hitters variations on most of those pitches by changing speeds or altering his delivery. What we’re talking about here is a highly intelligent and extremely competitive veteran who is constantly tinkering and tweaking to find new ways to keep his advantage over hitters. The curve ball is absurdly effective. According to the invaluable Brooks Baseball here’s what MLB hitters have done against the Wainwright curve since he became a starter in 2007: in the plate appearances that ended with Wainwright throwing his Uncle Charlie, hitters have struck out 678 times in 1,528 at-bats and are hitting .162 with a .223 slugging percentage an 0.60 ISO. He’s given up only 16 homers on 5,500 curves thrown since 2007. Because of his pitch-making versatility and enlightened knowledge of his craft, Wainwright doesn’t need to be a blazer — throwing 94 mph — to control hitters.
The 2016 projection: ZiPS has Wainwright making only 23 starts and throwing 156 innings; I think he’ll go beyond those barriers. The other key parts to the forecast: 13-7 record, 3.12 ERA, an adjusted ERA of 123 (or 23 percent above the league average), 19.5 percent strikeout rate (a slight drop), 5 percent walk rate (a slight improvement) and 3.6 WAR. Basically, ZiPS is forecasting a moderate downturn for Wainwright. But I don’t think ZiPS wants to get on Waino’s bad side. Wainwright may not have quite as much crackle, but at age 34 he still has more than enough going for him. One theory is that his arm is fresher because he missed 2011 and just about all of 2015 (except for his 33 innings.) We’ll see.
General outlook for 2016: He’s still Adam Wainwright. One of the best Cardinals. Ever. Except for his two seasons of being housed on the DL, Wainwright has been an efficient 200+ inning workhorse and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. A big key going forward is Wainwright maintaining his outstanding walk rate, which is 2.04 per nine innings since 2009. This maximizes his efficiency, helps put him in control of the counts, and cuts down on his labor-intensive innings. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Wainwright ranks eighth among MLB starters with a low average of 14.9 pitches per inning, and that efficiency protects his right arm against a lot of undue wear and tear. Part of that formula is Wainwright’s sharp cutter that gets him a lot of ground balls and quick outs. That too is an arm-saving device.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read all of Bernie’s 2016 Cardinals player previews here.
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