With the Cardinals down to their last few days of spring-training preparation, let’s move forward with my latest pitcher preview for 2016 …
Today: RH starter Carlos Martinez, age 24. After parts of two seasons (2013, 2014) in the Cards’ bullpen he’ll be entering his second full season in the Cards’ rotation. Martinez doesn’t turn 25 until Sept. 21.
Martinez’ 2015 adjusted ERA (+132) was 32 percent above the league average.
The 2015 season in review, the positives: There’s a lot to talk about here. He was a legitimate All-Star selection, voted in by the fans. He went 14-7 with a 3.01 ERA in 179.2 innings. The Cardinals had a 22-7 record in his 29 starts. His adjusted ERA (132+) was 32 percent above the league average and the fourth-best adjusted ERA by a Cardinal in an age 23 season since the pitching mound was lowered in 1969. (The three ahead of Martinez: Joe Magrane 161 ERA+ in 1988; Jaime Garcia 143 ERA+ in 2010, and John Denny 141 ERA+ in 1976.)
Since 1969 only 30 MLB starters in their age 23 seasons had a better ERA+ than Martinez. (That means he was 31st for best adjusted ERA among 224 age-23 starters in from 1969 through 2015. Impressive.) Despite missing his final two (or three) starts because of a shoulder strain, Martinez came through with 20 quality starts for the season — second to John Lackey (26) among Cards rotation members.
Martinez also led the St. Louis rotation with an average of 9.2 strikeouts per 9 IP, and finished with the 10th-lowest HR rate among LB starting pitchers (0.65 per 9 IP.)
Coming of age: Martinez had some early struggles including back-to-back starts of allowing 7 earned runs; that was in early May. But over a 22-start stretch that began on May 20 and ended with final start of the season , Martinez had the sixth-best ERA (2.51) among MLB starting pitchers, trailing only Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jacob de Grom. Martinez posted 16 quality starts among the 22 — including a spree of 11 consecutive quality starts and a blistering 1.13 ERA between May 20 and July 25.
The 2015 season, the negatives: Martinez had a 4.33 ERA over his last 11 starts, which prompted many people to declare that the young starter was pitching on fumes. And maybe there was some truth to that; after all the Martinez season abruptly ended when he had to withdraw in the first inning of his start on Sept. 25 — later diagnosed with a shoulder strain. It was a scary moment, but Martinez was fine after a period of rest and offseason training to build up the strength in the muscles that support his shoulder. But going back to late last season … yes, some fatigue was likely creeping in, but his basic statistics were misleading over the final 11 starts. I say that for a few reasons: his strikeout rate actually increased over the 11 starts, his walk rate dropped, his fastball velocity remained intact (97.4 mph) and his strikeout-walk ratio was an excellent 4.20. The problem: batted-ball luck turned against Martinez; opponents had an outlier .377 average on balls in play over his last 11 starts. In his first 18 starts that average on balls in play was .294, so we can see why his ERA would spike late in the season. This will be a challenge for Martinez going forward: the inevitable leveling of specific stats that are dependent on the outcome of batted-ball randomness. In 2015 only two MLB starters gave up a lower batting average than Martinez (.188) with runners in scoring position, and that number included a .155 average with RISP and two outs. Overall, Martinez stranded 79 percent of the runners that he put on base; that kind of rate will be difficult for Martinez to sustain over a long period of time.
Why he’s so good at such a young age: Martinez brings a somewhat rare combination to the competition — a powerful strikeout punch and loads of ground balls. Last season he ranked 17th among MLB starters with a strikeout rate of 24.8 percent but was also 8th with a ground-ball rate of 55.1 percent. The punchouts and the grounders certainly tend to keep the ball in the park; Martinez was touched for only six homers in his final 140 innings of work in 2015. He has a four-seam fastball that averaged 97 mph, a sinking fastball that averages 96.5 mph, and two terrific “out” pitches that he uses to put away LH batters and RH batters.
About those “out” pitches: With the LH bats, the killer pitch is the Martinez changeup. According to the treasure trove of data at Brooks Baseball, Martinez threw the changeup on 38 percent of his two-strike counts vs. LH hitters and struck them out with the change at a rate of 37.5%. For this career, LH batters have hit .139 against his changeup and struck out 36% of the time. In that context the changeup has been a game-changer for Martinez, who had a hard time dealing with LH batters in his first two seasons. But after throwing changeups to LH bats only 8.5% of the time in 2013, he’s raised that changeup frequency to 17% in 2014 and 28% in 2015. The change has been the key to his success vs. LH batters who can no longer sit and wait for Martinez to serve up a fastball. Against RH batters, the slider is the lethal weapon of choice. Martinez pounds the RH bats with the slider on two-strike counts, and for his career he’s struck them out at a staggering rate of 49.7 percent in at-bats terminated by a slider. That’s absolutely sick.
The 2016 projections: ZiPS is up on Martinez, forecasting a season that isn’t that far off from 2015. The notables: 172 innings, 3.34 ERA, a fielding independent ERA of 3.21 (just a tad of an increase from last year), a slightly increased strikeout rate, a slightly lower walk rate, and an adjusted ERA that would put him 14 percent better than the league average. ZiPS gives Martinez 3.5 Wins Above Replacement; that’s in line with last season’s 3.4 WAR. So what’s the reason for a projected rise in ERA? Probably the drop in his “strand” rate, with more runners expected to score after reaching base against Martinez. The increase in his projected “strand” rate, four percent or so, is enough to cause some minor ERA inflation.
General outlook for 2016: It’s all about pitching health with Martinez. He’s already displayed an aptitude for making adjustments and finding new ways to deal with hitters. He’s an intense competitor that’s already well ahead of the curve in developing into a complete pitcher that can vex hitters with imposing velocity and sneaky finesse. But veteran baseball observers (including ESPN’s Curt Schilling) warn of mechanical flaws that could lead to elbow or shoulder trouble. Will Martinez hit the so-called wall again when he goes beyond, say, 150 innings pitched? Or will “El Gallo” be safer as he matures physically? The risk factors seem high, but these are compelling questions that can’t be answered now. But Carlos Martinez is a very special talent that has a chance to put together a very special career.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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