Here’s my latest player preview for the 2016 Cardinals…
Today: LH starter Jaime Garcia, who turns 30 on July 8. Garcia will be paid $11.5 million this season after the Cardinals picked up his option for 2016. The club has a $12 million option for 2017, with a buyout of $500,000.
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Garcia’s 2.43 ERA in 2015 ranked fourth among pitchers with 20 or more starts.
Garcia has been at the major-league level with the Cardinals since 2008 but has made only 117 career starts because of a history of injuries that includes Tommy John elbow surgery, rotator cuff surgery, thoracic outlet surgery, a shoulder sprain, groin strain, and elbow inflammation.
By my unofficial count the Cardinals have placed Garcia on the disabled list on eight separate occasions during his career. When healthy, Garcia is often a marvel: a lefthanded artist that can dot his five above-average pitches all over the strike zone to baffle hitters. But keeping Garcia healthy is an eternal struggle.
The encouraging 2015 season: After making only 16 starts in 2013-2014 combined, Garcia returned from thoracic outlet surgery to defy extremely low expectations and deliver on a truly surprising comeback. His reemergence was marred by (what else?) by arm discomfort that delayed his regular-season debut until May 21 and a strained left groin (while running the bases) that kept him on the DL for 24 days in July. That held his innings-pitched total to 129.2. But when Garcia was able to go to the post, his work was outstanding. He crafted 15 quality starts among his 20 starts last season.
His 2.43 ranked fourth among MLB starters that made at least 20 starts, with only Zack Greinke (1.66), Jake Arrieta (1.77) and Clayton Kershaw (2.13) denying runs at a stingier rate. Among those with 20 starts, Garcia was 17th in fielding independent ERA (3.03), had the fourth-lowest HR rate, had the 11th lowest rate of base-runners per 9 innings — and only three starting pitchers had a higher ground-ball rate. (More on that in a few moments.) Bottom line: Garcia’s adjusted ERA was 63 percent better than the league average and the best of his career.
Ignore Garcia’s won-loss record: A lack of run support gave Garcia a misleading 10-6 won record; he deserved a shinier result. But the Cardinals scored an average of 3.89 runs per nine innings for Garcia, which put him at No. 101 on a list of 124 MLB pitchers for run support. (Minimum 20 starts.) Garcia is a great example of how a pitcher’s individual win totals can be very unfair. The Cardinals had a 13-7 record in Garcia’s 20 starts — but scored only one run TOTAL in the seven losses. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of the seven defeats. Contrast that to teammate Michael Wacha, who enjoyed the third-highest run-support average (5.96 per game) among MLB starters in 2015. The STL hitters’ largesse helped puff up Wacha’s win total to 17. In fairness to Wacha, he pitched very well until withering in the season’s final month, but the Cardinals averaged 7.3 runs in the 21 Wacha starts that ended in a victory.
Jaime loves him some Busch Stadium: since the new ballpark opened in 2006, here are the three-best starting pitching ERAs: (1) Chris Carpenter, 2.61 ERA in 68 starts; (2) Jaime Garcia, 2.64 ERA in 59 starts; (3) Adam Wainwright, 2.73 ERA in 113 starts. Garcia is a different — and much better — pitcher at home. For his career he has a 4.01 road ERA in 58 starts and that 2.64 ERA in 59 Busch starts.
The No. 1 key to Garcia’s success: (Other than pitching health, of course.) It comes down to bushels of ground balls and superb efficiency. Garcia’s 62 percent GB rate was his personal career high; because he got so many quick outs he finished the season with the third-lowest average of pitches per inning (14.3) among MLB starters (minimum 20 starts.) And the beautiful thing about this for Garcia is his ability to induce a high rate of grounders with every type of pitch he throws. According to the pitching data at the invaluable Brooks Baseball Garcia had a GB rate above 60 percent with his sinker, changeup and slider in 2015 — and his four-seam fastball (58%) and curve (56%) were above the MLB average for getting hitters to slap the ball on the ground. As I’ve written many times, an elevated GB rate is a good thing but can leave a pitcher vulnerable to batted-ball luck; the grounders don’t always find the fielder’s glove. But I’ve come to believe the randomness of a GB pitcher is overstated. There’s a hella lot more to this than luck.
Because of his excellent repertoire of five above-average pitches that he will throw to any hitter in any count, Garcia effectively ties them in knots and gets a lot of weak contact. Last season, the hard-contact rate allowed by Garcia, 27 percent, was the lowest against any Cardinal starter. This can be tricky; the contact rate (8o%) against Garcia in 2015 was the highest of his career. But as long as Garcia gets hitters to smack ground balls, he should be fine. Garcia’s 2015 home-run rate — only 0.49 per nine innings — was the lowest of his career. And if he can keep the bases relatively clean by keeping his walks total down again, the formula should continue to work for him in ’16.
Beware the 3rd time through the lineup: Garcia’s stamina wavered in the latter stages of his starts last season, and that’s one of the things to monitor in 2016. Here’s the breakdown of batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against Garcia last season as he progressed through the opposing team’s lineup:
1st time through: .190 BA, .252 SLG, .514 OPS
2nd time through: .194 BA, .253 SLG, .476 OPS
3rd time through: .302, .411 SLG, . 751 OPS
Garcia had a 2.10 ERA in the first five innings of his 20 starts; in the sixth and seventh innings (combined) that ERA shot up to 3.85. Garcia’s stamina may be firmer going forward; after all his 129.2 IP in 2015 were his most in a season since 2011. But it’s also true that’s imperative for Garcia to maintain his sharp efficiency and keep his innings as short as possible.
The 2016 projections: ZiPS isn’t optimistic, forecasting only 16 starts and 92.1 innings for Garcia, with a 7-5 record and 3.40 ERA. In terms of value, Garcia would be worth about one less win (above replacement level) compared to last year’s 2.7 WAR. The Steamer projection model is slightly more favorable, at least in terms of workload: 19 starts, 116 IP, 7-6 record, 3.39 ERA. Both systems have Garcia maintaining his good strikeout-walk rate, but envision a slight uptick in his homers-allowed rate.
General outlook: It’s the Jaime Garcia experience. Wild, a bit wacky and absolutely unpredictable. When he pitches, he’s very good. And it’s hard to believe that Garcia is still only 29 as the new campaign begins. But knowing just how much he’ll be available to pitch — well, that’s always the question, right? And you never know when a melodrama will suddenly erupt. (Re: his illness before the Game 2 disaster in the 2015 NLDS, which substantially altered the course of that series and gave a strong advantage to the Cubs.) But Garcia has a lot on the line in 2016; a good season will lead to the Cardinals picking up his $12 million option for 2017 or enhance his free-agent profile if the Cardinals pass on the option. With Jaime Omar Garcia we have no choice but to buckle up, hope for the best, and see where the ride takes us.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Read all of Bernie’s 2016 Cardinals player previews here.
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